Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 10.750868 12.334879 14.045480 16.026814 18.255136 20.680315 23.516035
2025-04-27 8.451551 10.594053 13.090806 16.201929 19.960264 24.338522 29.808818
2025-05-04 7.176248 9.525724 12.400786 16.152973 20.892783 26.650804 34.141408
2025-05-11 6.110028 8.546018 11.662125 15.901560 21.473931 28.498086 37.963856
2025-05-18 5.403679 7.908920 11.238558 15.932422 22.313360 30.610336 42.125271
2025-05-25 4.881620 7.447369 10.978102 16.117680 23.318351 32.943167 46.652734
2025-06-01 4.387248 6.960369 10.618828 16.106055 24.011452 34.849997 50.660027
2025-06-08 3.927417 6.469266 10.197758 15.950964 24.460484 36.408068 54.226360
2025-06-15 3.608714 6.154410 9.997362 16.083190 25.302688 38.528582 58.650800
2025-06-22 3.412424 6.008032 10.030492 16.552609 26.648897 41.415307 64.285950
2025-06-29 3.092046 5.627867 9.666233 16.375609 26.994971 42.836449 67.822270
2025-07-06 2.681962 5.056581 8.948665 15.582580 26.328846 42.692330 68.991578
2025-07-13 2.535257 4.927864 8.947828 15.951460 27.522942 45.452501 74.730086
2025-07-20 2.387839 4.783683 8.908831 16.252119 28.621449 48.115044 80.441031
2025-07-27 2.189328 4.525498 8.650839 16.158672 29.057386 49.739224 84.576056
2025-08-03 1.988941 4.243137 8.326014 15.922536 29.232369 50.941204 88.076188
2025-08-10 1.847251 4.058737 8.159896 15.948027 29.842569 52.863135 92.801068
2025-08-17 1.740649 3.932680 8.089206 16.135367 30.734857 55.278934 98.420723
2025-08-24 1.617421 3.760381 7.917349 16.123056 31.269236 57.110427 103.134504
2025-08-31 1.488098 3.562071 7.679160 15.968054 31.533626 58.485468 107.123601
2025-09-07 1.402887 3.449032 7.597384 16.100324 32.318815 60.777836 112.747505
2025-09-14 1.360054 3.424447 7.689024 16.570220 33.745111 64.237914 120.503408
2025-09-21 1.254316 3.248286 7.459136 16.393041 33.949478 65.547439 124.558943